• Bluesky Team

Winning La Belle Province - Oct 16

Good morning,

The final week of the campaign has the two top parties visiting a key battleground in this election – Quebec. The reason being is that Nearly a quarter of the seats in the House of Commons are from this province, and at least recently, Quebec has seen dramatic swings in representation. Remember the Orange wave? And now with the Bloc Quebecois seeing a resurgence, that is why Scheer returned to la belle province yesterday and Trudeau makes a visit today.

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And if the advance poll numbers are any indication, we could see a very dramatic finish next Monday evening.

Advanced polls see 4.7 million voters, setting new record

New poll results from Mainstreet Research suggest over two-thirds of voters who took advantage of advance polling over the past four days or have already submitted a special ballot voted for the Liberals or Conservatives.

Until then, let’s find out what is…

From Bluesky observers give their thoughts on the importance of the Quebec battleground. Is Premier Legault a factor?

From Geoff Turner, Senior Consultant

Unfortunately, the Bloc Québécois is no longer a party of the past. Resurgent under a charismatic and savvy leader, they're backed up by an assertive provincial government with an eye on devolutions from Ottawa. The Bloc have taken a big bite out of all parties in Québec by climbing closer to the Liberal lead; and with a muddy minority on everyone's lips, voters may see Bloquists as the best brokers for them.

The Liberals are still very strong on the ground, with fantastic candidates and Trudeau is popular and politically well aligned. With the NDP now uncompetitive, on the verge of losing all their 2011-2015 seats, the other parties are competing fiercely for these voters, and who succeeds will determine a lot about the next government.

From Neil Brodie, Vice President

Politics in La Belle Provence is a passionate topic, some say second only to les Canadiens. With 78 seats, almost a quarter of the seats in the House of Commons, Québec can be critical to electoral success. A recent exception would be in 2011 when Mr. Harper won his majority with only 5 seats in Québec.

M. Legault may be a contributing factor to this election. But more of a contributing factor is the lack of a leader the province can rally behind. As a result, the Bloc is climbing in the polls after being dead for two election cycles.

From Cameron Holmstrom, Consultant

Coming into this campaign Quebec promised to be one of the biggest battlegrounds of this election. With 78 seats and so many parties with pockets of strength, most parties’ clearest paths to government passed through La Belle Province. Also, in the past few elections, Quebec has proved to have the most fluid electorate. In 2008 they elected large numbers of Bloc Quebecois MPs, followed by the Orange Wave that swept 59 NDP MPs into office in 2011, ending with a Red Surge of 40 MPs coming in 2015. Crazy vote splits and an electorate seemingly open to swinging in many directions easily made Quebec the province to watch in this campaign.

And folks, has Quebec ever delivered in that sense. We’ve seen the Conservatives collapse after it looked like they might ride the coattail of Premier François Legault to big gains. Instead it has been the BQ who have rode those large coattails to what looks like a plurality of seats in the province, pitching themselves as Legault’s best friends and the party best able to protect his agenda in Ottawa. As the unpopular Doug Ford has loomed over Ontario in this campaign and hurt the Conservatives chances, the popularity of Legault has been something that some parties have tried to latch onto and be identified with. While that popularity may help now, it will be interesting to see how being so closely attached to the CAQ government will affect how the different parties will behave and vote in a minority Parliament.

#whatsyourexcuse - Young Winnipegger Maddison Yetman, who has been given a week to live after being diagnosed with a terminal illness, calls on Canadians to vote in the upcoming election https://twitter.com/MaddiYet/status/1184131458660651017

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Where you will find the leaders today.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May will make an announcement on the Green Party’s policies for improving health care and implementing universal pharmacare. at 2:15 p.m. ET in Victoria with candidate Racelle Kooy and other local candidates. Ms. May will participate in an all-candidates debate on Salt Spring Island at 6 p.m. ET.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will be in Montreal to hold a 9:30 a.m. ET event called Les progressistes c’est nous, visit local businesses in Hochelaga, and hold a rally at 5:30 p.m. ET with NDP supporters.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau will begin in Montreal, Q.C. to deliver remarks and will hold a media availability at 8 a.m. ET. Many Liberal candidates from across Quebec will be in attendance. Trudeau will then campaign with candidates in Greenfield Park, Chambly and Drummondville. He will end the day with a 7:15 p.m. ET rally in Sherbrooke.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer will start off the day campaigning with a candidate in Saint-Jérôme, Q.C. and then travel to Ontario for an announcement at noon ET in Essex, ON. Scheer will then attend a rally with candidates and supporters in Ancaster beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET.

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