Two Down - Sept 30th
Good Monday morning,
Week three has begun and only 21 days left until election day.
From the start of the campaign, the Liberals under Justin Trudeau and the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer have been virtually dead locked in the polls and that continues this morning.
This means that the NDP and the Green Party are going to play a vital role in the makeup of the 44th Parliament following the election. If you haven’t already, make sure to read the column by the CBC’s Aaron Wherry on “Which party would have the clout in a minority Parliament?”.
Until we find out what the makeup of the House of Commons will look like, let’s have a look at what is…
Consultant Raphael Brass has gives this analysis on the Liberal platform released yesterday.
Liberals aim to repeat 2015 success with launch 2019 Election platform
Justin Trudeau took to centre stage in Mississauga, Ontario, Sunday afternoon to unveil the promise heavy Liberal platform. In “Forward a real plan for the middle class,” the Liberals are looking to attract voters back to their party by committing to spend billions for middle-class families, seniors students, and Indigenous Canadians as well as enhancing Canada’s fight against climate change. In 2015, the Liberals were the only party not to promise to maintain a balanced Budget. Their ability to commit to spend money was a large catalyst to their success four years ago and they are now looking to replicate that in the coming election.
The costliest of the 48 measures laid out in the platform include:
$286 tax cut for those earning less than $150,605 a year ($143 for those earning up to $214,557)
10% increase to Old Age Security (OAS) for seniors over 75
Increasing the Canada Child Benefit for those younger than one to $7,750 a year
Extending maternity benefits to adoptive parents and exempting parental EI benefits from income tax.
$6-billion investment in public health care over four years to pay for nation-wide pharmacare, increasing access to family doctors, and additional mental health services.
Increased financial aid and incentives for post-secondary education.
Of course, these promises come with a hefty price tag. In total, the platform commits the Liberals to $9.3. billion in new spending in 2020-2021. In the last year of second term, in fiscal year 2023-2024, a re-elected Trudeau government would add an additional $17 billion to the deficit to ensure they are able to fulfil these campaign commitments. The Liberals contend that a decreasing debt-to-GDP ratio is the most important fiscal indicator and Canadians do not need to be concerned about the rising deficits. Though the Liberals have no timeline to return to a balance budget, they are hopeful that Canadians are satisfied with record GDP and job growth during Trudeau’s first four years and that they will receive the nod for a second mandate on October 21.
Liberals release new ad that compares the Liberal tax cut for the middle class vs. Conservative tax break for millionaires https://bit.ly/2mIjbUF
Liberals ask for an investigation of Scheer’s insurance industry credentials https://bit.ly/2nLyJGY
Quebec Liberal volunteer caught disposing of Conservative campaign literature https://bit.ly/2nK0z6u
Andrew Scheer to give hunters and anglers a seat at the table https://bit.ly/2onRhgV
Andrew Scheer pitches National Energy Corridor to create jobs and unite Canadians https://bit.ly/2m7GczX
NDP promises money for youth programs to help prevent organized crime https://bit.ly/2m3UscO
Green Party pledges to fund AI research, and protect workers from jobs lost due to automation https://bit.ly/2nKdDsU
Protesters, supporters clash outside Maxime Bernier event in Hamilton https://bit.ly/2nFXwfV
Where the leaders are today
Green Party leader Elizabeth May will attend the Canadian Club Vancouver’s breakfast event beginning at 10 a.m. ET, alongside local candidates Jesse Brown (Vancouver Centre) and Bridget Burns (East Vancouver). Following the breakfast event, Ms. May will make a Green Party of Canada announcement.
Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau will participate in a discussion with healthcare professionals about the need to end gun violence. This discussion will take place at 10 a.m.ET and a media availability will follow.
Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer will be in Whitby, ON to make an 11 a.m. ET announcement. Scheer will then campaign with candidates in Toronto, Scarborough, and Brampton. He will end the day in Brampton with the Conservative team at 6 p.m. ET to share how Canadians will get ahead.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will make an announcement in Vancouver, BC at 12:30 ET outlining the NDP's plan for affordable childcare with NDP candidates Jenny Kwan (Vancouver East), Breen Ouellette (Vancouver Centre) and Yvonne Hanson (Vancouver Granville). Following the announcement, he will take a walk through Stanley Park with candidate Breen Ouellette.
The Bluesky strategist give their thoughts on what we can expect this week from the parties.
From the desk of Susan Smith, Principal
Back to offence should be the Liberal theme this week, with a healthy dose of French language debate prep built in. Watch for the PM and his Ministers to be selling the merits of the fully released platform and its fiscal approach.
Trudeau will be looking to build on the positive momentum of the climate action marches, driving home the Liberal presence and approach in contrast to Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer’s no-show for the largest movement of youth and Canadian citizens the country has witnessed in decades.
Final prep for Wednesday’s TVA debate will take up the extra minutes - it will be leader-to-leader combat for Quebec votes with Singh, Blanchet, Scheer and Bernier looking to land a body blow or two on Trudeau, as well as their other opponents.
Post debate expect Trudeau and his team to head for the hearts and minds of the vote-rich 905.
From the desk of Neil Brodie, Vice President - Battleground week
The Conservatives will likely concentrate on the GTA and Québec this week. This makes sense since the week is broken up by the TVA debate on Wednesday. Look for more incremental policy announcements that Canadians can actually use. Also, keep an eye on the polls to see if any party can start pulling away from the entrenched numbers of the last 3 weeks.
From the desk of Cameron Holmstrom, Consultant
As we go into October and pass the midway point of this campaign, the NDP has a lot to be happy about so far. Their tour has gone well and have made the most of the limited resources that has dictated where they have been so far. Leader Jagmeet Singh has performed well and his personal approval numbers continue to rise considerably.
But while there are good things to point to, the overall poll numbers have barely moved for everyone, as all of the parties are oscillating within the margin of error and seem stuck in place. For the Orange team, this creates a danger of getting squeezed out and seeing voters forced into the "Red Door/Blue Door" argument that we're used to seeing in Canadian elections. Despite good performances to date, the NDP hasn't been able to change that narrative yet. This week will be crucial, with the TVA debate taking place Wednesday night and with no Green Party on the stage. It will give Singh a chance to prove himself against the front runners and prove that he is the alternative for those who won't vote Conservative and can't hold their noses to vote Liberal. For this week to be a good one for the NDP, a strong performance in that debate is a must.