• Bluesky Team

Today is the Day! Oct 21st

Good Monday morning,

And Happy Election Day! Canadians, who have been waiting to cast their vote, will be able to do so between 9:30 a.m. and 9:30 p.m., at their local polling stations.

Throughout the campaign, the race has been deadlocked between the Liberals and Conservatives and as of last night polls remain unchanged.

MAINSTREET RESEARCH: Minority Government Most Likely Scenario: CPC 32%, LPC 32%, NDP 18%, Green 6%

IPSOS: Conservatives (33%) Have Slight Lead over Liberals (31%) in National Popular Vote, but Liberals Hold Advantage in Ontario and Quebec

ABACUS DATA: Election Poll: Regional races & turnout will decide an election with 2-points separating Liberals and Conservatives in Canada

NANOS RESEARCH: Conservatives 31.5, Liberals 31.0, NDP 18.8, Greens 9.5, BQ 7.0, PPC 1.8: Nanos Nightly Election Tracking (Oct. 20 release)

On the edge: tight riding races put some top Liberal cabinet ministers at risk

Election coverage varies between CTV News, CBC, Global TV News and CPAC, so make sure to check your local listings or online for details. Bluesky will also be active on Twitter providing analysis throughout the night. As we have mentioned, with such a tight race expected, it could be a late night until a winner is chosen.

Until then, let find out what is…

From Bluesky’s election observers with their sense of how tonight will unfold.

From Susan Smith, Principal & Co-founder

After 40 days and 40 nights, and the nastiest campaign in recent memory, it comes down to today.

Every party is looking to capitalize on the momentum of their final rallies to galvanize their GOTV machines to get voters to the polls. And whhen the votes are counted, it’s likely that Canada will be looking at a minority Liberal government, with the balance of power held by the Bloc Québécois and the NDP.

It’s plain that the climate change message of the progressive parties resonated with many Canadians and that the country isn’t ready to go back to Conservative rule. The blue team will nonetheless pick up a few seats in Atlantic Canada and take Max Bernier’s seat and a couple more around Quebec City. The NDP will lose most of their Quebec stronghold, while the surging Bloc and Liberals battle for the rest.

Vote-rich GTA in Ontario will be mostly red in hue, which will be the key to a Liberal victory, and west of Manitoba until the BC border will be dominated as usual by Conservative seats, with pockets of Liberal and NDP support. Few surprises expected there.

Splits and strategic voting in some Quebec and BC ridings will make these two provinces the ones to watch all night. With pipeline politics top of mind for many BC voters, the Liberals will hold some, but not all the 17 seats they took in 2015.

Bleary-eyed Canadians will wake up on Tuesday morning to constitutional experts explaining the machinations of minority government. Trudeau and his team will then begin negotiations on the content of a Throne Speech and priorities that will retain the confidence of the House.

The 2019 campaign may be over, but the politics, as always, will continue.

From Cameron Holmstrom, Consultant

Election Day is finally here and after 40 days and 40 nights we'll finally know what our next Parliament will look like. It's been a campaign that hasn't gone as most people expected and except for the NDP and Bloc Quebecois, it's been a campaign that's been marked with next to no movement in the polls. We go into Monday night with many pollsters putting the two front running parties tied with barely over 30% of the vote, which is unprecedented in Canadian history.

That makes the task of making predictions about what the result will look like very hard, but here is my best shot. I expect that we will come out of Monday night with a minority government with a majority being far off. I predict the Liberals will have enough seats to have the political legitimacy to take the first crack at forming government, with the Conservative only gathering a handful of new seats. The NDP will come close to matching their current seat total, which would make it one of the best electoral results in party history. The Bloc will get official party status and will come back with over 30 seats. The Greens will come back with only one seat, that of Ms. May, and I predict she will resign her leadership shortly there after. Maxime Bernier will survive and hold onto his seat, as will Jody Wilson-Raybould. I predict that between the Liberals and NDP, they will have enough seats to make this minority work for at least a couple of years and that there will not be any increase to the GST. But that's just my best guess. With the situation so fluid and with so many tight local races, a lot could still happen tonight that could easily blow up these predictions. Tonight is ,going to be a late one, and promises to be one of the least predictable results we've seen before.

This election, vote for a Parliament that will defend, reinvigorate democracy

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Where you will find the leaders today.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau will vote in his riding of Papineau at 10 a.m. ET. Then at 7 p.m. ET, Trudeau Team 2019 Election Night event with supporters will begin.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will thank volunteers and hold a get out the vote event at 1:15 p.m. ET. and hold an election night victory party in Burnaby beginning at 11 p.m. ET.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May will cast her ballot on Monday morning in Sidney, before campaigning in the afternoon with David Merner (Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke) and Racelle Kooy (Victoria). In the evening, Ms. May will join the Green Party of Canada’s election night party at the Crystal Gardens in Victoria.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer

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