• Bluesky Team

Time to Debate - Oct 2, 2019

Good morning,

With voting starting in 9 days, Canadians will hear from Liberal leader Justin Trudeau as he participates in his first televised debate. Of course, it will be in French but the TVA debate could provide a decisive moment in the Election 2019 campaign. Only the leaders whose parties have elected MPs in Quebec will take part; joining Trudeau at the lecterns will be the Bloc Québécois’s Yves-François Blanchet, Conservative Andrew Scheer and the New Democrats’ Jagmeet Singh.

For more on what Canadian voters can expect from this debate, the Montreal Gazette has a excellent guide to read. And, of course, be sure to read tomorrow’s Bluesky’s Brief to get our team’s analysis of the debate.

Until then, let’s see what is…

The Polls

  • Angus Reid Institute poll shows there is a Centre-Left Scuffle: Conservatives maintain lead as Liberals struggle to lock in vacillating progressives https://bit.ly/2mLHi4J / study that shows 67 ridings decided by five or fewer points across the country in last federal election www.angusreid.org

  • Liberals, Conservatives in close race as Green support drops four points: Ipsos poll https://bit.ly/2oSxarq

  • Nanos Poll shows Trudeau's popularity has taken a hit https://bit.ly/2nFxGbZ

Conservative foreign policy will cut aid spending by 25% and put it back in the pockets of Canadian families https://bit.ly/2mGBRnF / Andrew Scheer’s claim about foreign aid deemed false https://bit.ly/2pbkLPD

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says that if elected, he would immediately declare a public health emergency over the opioid crisis and stop the criminalization of people dealing with addiction. cbc.ca/1.5303769

Post-secondary education must be free for everyone, says Green Party https://bit.ly/2oYl1kK

May alleges that Scheer damaged Speaker’s office by re-entering partisan politics https://bit.ly/2paLj3t

PPC candidate withdraws, citing 'divisive and dangerous elements' in the party https://bit.ly/2mK6Wa4

CBC’s The National Presents: Face to Face with the Federal Party Leaders, where five undecided voters get five minutes to ask one of four federal party leaders about an issue close to their hearts as they go about making up their minds about whom to vote for. Liberal leader Justin Trudeau was up Monday evening and Conservative leader Andrew Scheer appeared last night. Tonight at 10 p.m. ET, viewers will hear from Green Party leader Elizabeth May and NDP leader Jagmeet Singh on Thursday.

Troubles for the Liberal media bus...again https://bit.ly/2onUBIQ

War of words in Vancouver https://bit.ly/2nDm3T3

Where you will find the leaders today

Green Party leader Elizabeth May will speak at the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs’ Annual General Assembly at 5 p.m. ET in Vancouver, BC. M Ms. May will then participate in an all-candidates debate on at 10 p.m. ET in Saanichton, B.C. Also, at this time, CBC’s The National will air a special program wherein Ms. May has the opportunity to speak with five undecided voters across Canada about the issues that are important to them

NDP leader Jagmeet Singh will visit the iconic Atwater Market in Montreal, Q.C. around 9:45 a.m. ET with his wife, Gurkiran, to pick up snacks for his debate prep team before attending the debate at 8 p.m. ET

Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau will train with Ali Nestor, boxing champion and founder of the Les princes de la rue organisation, and his students in Montreal at 11 a.m. ET and then he will participate in the TVA Leaders’ debate at 8 p.m. ET. A media availability will follow.

Conservative Party leader Andrew Scheer will be in Montreal for the debate and has no other media events scheduled.

The Bluesky observers give their thoughts what the leaders need to achieve in tonight’s TVA Debate.

From the desk of Susan Smith, Principal

Trudeau will be getting it full-barrel from Scheer, Singh and Blanchet on the TVA stage tonight. He’ll have to defend his record while outlining in clear language, why the Liberal vision for the country is the best option for Canadians and their families. A solid debater, he will have to play offence as well as defence, and show himself to be the kind of leader who both understands and can deliver on the priorities of Quebecers, particularly on the environment and social policy, while being the best voice for the province and country on the global scene.

All of the leaders will be nervous. But none are new to the game of politics and vigorous debate. With such a tight race, the debates will matter. Trudeau doesn’t need to “win” or score a “knockout blow”, he just needs to emerge still standing with a solid performance.

From the desk of Neil Brodie, Vice President

The TVA debate is a French-language debate. I can’t imagine there will be a lot of viewers outside of Québec and New Brunswick. This has all the makings of an unwatchable debate. With 6 party leaders and a moderator, only three participants fully fluent in French, people will be talking over each other.

For those who do watch, keep an eye on the dynamics between leaders. Ms. May is losing support to Mr. Singh. Mr. Trudeau will be in his first debate since his blackface pictures surfaced and he has bent over backwards professing he is not a racist. Expect Mr. Singh to press him and other leaders on racial concerns including Québec’s Bill 21 regarding the wearing of religious symbols in the Québec public service. M. Bernier will have a chance to debate Mr. Scheer who narrowly won the Conservative leadership over M. Bernier. M. Blanchet’s party is doing well in the polls and will have to continue to take support from Mr. Singh and Mr. Scheer to grow support. On social and environment issues it will be all 6 against Mr. Scheer. Who knows what M. Bernier may say at any given moment? And everyone will be gunning to take down Mr. Trudeau who is arguably one or two solid hits away from sinking in the polls as supporters become more disappointed in his leadership.

On second thought, maybe it’s worth switching channels during the commercials in the Sens v Leafs game.

From the desk of Cameron Holmstrom, Consultant 

Tonight, the first big debate of this election will take place and given the static state of the race, the TVA Debate has the potential to be a big turning point for this campaign. With only four leaders on the stage, it will also give each leader a chance to make an impact with voters in Quebec.

For Jagmeet Singh, the stakes of this debate are just as high as they were during the Maclean's/CityTV debate of a few weeks ago. While his personal approval ratings are steadily rising and he has shown himself to be a strong campaigner, the NDP itself is still stuck in a distant third place and even further behind in Quebec. With only three weeks left in the race, this is going to be one of the last and best chances for Singh to make his mark with the voting public. A flat performance could deflate any momentum that Singh has built so far, but a strong one could help break the logjam. A strong performance will keep the Orange teams’ chances alive and give them lots of energy going ahead.

Where the Bluesky team can be seen and heard:

Principal Susan Smith joined CFRA's Bill Carroll to discuss the latest from the election campaign trail http://my.tvey.es/Ad26Y

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