A Place to Grow? Oct 17th
Yesterday on the campaign trail, there were messages of hope, confidence and fear from the leaders of the three main parties.
And with a lot of talk from leaders about which party is the most progressive, discussions around “split voting” are now happening among leftist voters, which could give Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives an over-representation of electoral seats.
Remember 2015 and “electoral reform”? Had this promise come to fruition, strategic voting would have become a thing of the past. Both the Green Party and the NDP have promised to bring back election reform should they win on October 21st.
Until then, let’s find out what is…
Voter sentiment in the Ontario battleground and Bluesky observers give their take on how important this province is to forming government.
From Raphael Brass, Consultant
Any path to a Liberal government runs straight through Toronto, the 905, and the rest of Ontario - home to 121 of the 338 seats in the House. Going into the election, the Liberals hold 79 ridings and will need keep most of them given Quebec's embrace of the Bloc. Between a strong economy and the unpopularity of PC Premier Doug Ford, the province remains fertile ground for the Grits on Oct 21.
From Neil Brodie, Vice President
In the past 50 years, only 2 governments have won the most seats without winning the battle of Ontario; Trudeau Sr. in 1972 and Harper in 2006 and both of those elections resulted in minority parliaments. Compare these results with Mr. Harper’s 2011 majority parliament which came with the Conservatives winning only 5 seats in Québec.
The density of ridings in the southern Ontario ‘Golden Horseshoe” makes for efficient campaigning. That’s why you will see the leaders of the three major parties visiting this area over the last 5 days of the election season. A leader can expect supporters from many ridings attending an event and the media coverage in the region has a total reach that is more than in any other electoral region.
From Cameron Holmstrom, Consultant
When it comes to winning government in Canada, one truism has remained constant since Confederation; the path to government goes through Ontario. With 121 seats, the province holds more than a third of all seats in the country and as a result, holds a big amount of sway when it comes to the composition of any government formed here. Given the tight nature of this campaign, what happens in Ontario will again have a lot to say about who wins on October 21st.
But Ontario is not a monolith, and the races in every region are very different. In downtown Toronto, it’s really a Liberal-NDP fight but the further away from the city core, into the 905, it becomes more of a Liberal-Conservative battle, with flashes of NDP strength. In the East the ridings are mostly Conservative-Liberal fights while in the North, it’s almost exclusively an NDP-Liberal duel. And in the Southwest and Niagara regions, it’s a three-way battle royal between the three main parties. The races in each of the regions will have their own flavours and focuses, and the local resources on the ground will go a long way to determining who will come out on top. And if things weren’t interesting enough in the province, the spectres of Doug Ford and Kathleen Wynne loom over both the Conservatives and Liberals respectively, not helping their figures. A divided result in Ontario will go a long way to bringing us to a minority government, as it looks very unlikely that any one party will have a big win here. And if that comes to pass, it will help to ensure that Canada returns to an era of minority government again.
And NDP leader Jagmeet Singh air band audition
Where you will find the leaders today.
Green Party leader Elizabeth May will make an announcement on the Green Party’s policies regarding fisheries in Canada.at 3:15 p.m. ET. Ms. May will then set off on a bus tour of Vancouver Island, through North Island-Powell River, Courtenay-Alberni, Nanaimo-Ladysmith, Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, Saanich-Gulf Islands, and Victoria
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will spend a day touring Ontario. Singh will hold a campaign stop with NDP candidate Malcolm Allen (Niagara Centre) and Ontario NDP Leader Andrea Horwath in Welland, a campaign stop in Toronto with NDP candidate Mae J. Nam (Beaches—East York), and a rally with hundreds of supporters in Brampton East. At 10 p.m. ET, Singh will sit down and speak with CTV’s Lisa Laflamme.
Liberal leader Justin Trudeau will be in Trois-Rivières at 8 a.m. ET to deliver remarks and hold a media availability alongside the Liberal candidate for the riding, Valérie Renaud-Martin. Trudeau will then campaign with candidates in Terrebonne and Sainte-Thérèse. He will end the day with an evening rally in Montreal that will begin at 7 p.m. ET.
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer will be in Brampton to make an announcement at 10:30 a.m. ET. And then head into Toronto to campaign with candidate Rachel Willson. From Ontario, Scheer will head to Little Harbour, N.S. for 7 p.m. ET rally with the Conservative team.
You’re invited! Next Tuesday morning, #elxn43 results will be the hottest topic in town - so why not have a coffee with us (and other #cdnpoli nerds) while you vent/celebrate? Click on the image above for further details and to RSVP.