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Minority Mindset - Oct 18th


Good morning,

E-day is now less than 72 hours away and journalists traveling with the leaders are now asking each of them what they will do in a minority situation. Of course, each leader wants to win a majority, but the polls are telling a different story.


Scheer says party with most seats should have 'right' to form government


Former premiers say post-election PM could face rocky road with provinces


In Quebec, Liberals & Bloq are neck & neck in Leger/TVA poll

Unless something drastically happens this weekend, election night will be a nail-bitter. So until then, let’s find out what is…

The Honourable Joe Jordan with his take on minority governments and coalitions following the 2019 Election

While we spend the last weekend of the campaign staring directly at the prospect of a minority government, it might be useful to look at some potential result scenarios and what they might mean for Canadians going forward.


Regardless of what you may have heard or read; the Prime Minister is the Prime Minister as a result of demonstrating that he/she has the confidence of the House of Commons. Although the seat count on election night can certainly be a strong indicator of confidence, the Prime Minister is still the Prime Minister unless he/she resigns. It is that resignation, not the seat count, that would initiate any transfer of power.


So, outside of a surprise majority result, there are two scenarios to watch for on Monday evening. The first, is a strong Conservative minority that results in the Prime Minister announcing his resignation and clearing the runway for the Governor General to ask Andrew Scheer to attempt to form government. Of course, this means that we must prepare for the upcoming confidence hurdle of a Throne Speech.


The second scenario is anything less than a strong Conservative minority. In this case, the Liberals remain in government and begin negotiations with the opposition parties on support agreements. Parliament will be recalled once the Liberals are able to get a Throne Speech passed.


There is no doubt that the second scenario would get messy and muddled, but it is important to remember that it does not rise to the level of constitutional crisis or a coup d'état by the opposition parties. While you would certainly hear those descriptions and criticisms, you would simply be getting political spin.


Finally, given that minority governments typically last for about 18 months, a minority result Monday night will cause parties to immediately start looking to the next federal election. That means that the decisions they make, concerning leadership and confidence votes, must be viewed through that lens to be properly evaluated.


Winning the war and losing the battle is a distinct possibility!

Who Jagmeet Singh is working for https://twitter.com/sashakalra/status/1184894252343529473


NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh hopes for lift from Drake’s producer as he hosts final Ontario campaign rally in Brampton pic.twitter.com/jLOVmXUerA

Judy Sgro no-shows at all-candidates meeting, at the last minute

Conservative Release - 100 Day Action Plan: Repealing Trudeau carbon tax before January 1


Fisheries threatened by climate crisis, need urgent protection, says Green Party

Where you will find the leaders today.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will tour Vancouver Island. Singh will hold a campaign stop with NDP candidate Bob Chamberlin (Nanaimo—Ladysmith), a rally with NDP candidate Gord Johns (Courtenay—Port Alberni), and a rally with NDP candidate Laurel Collins (Victoria). Singh, who has recently seen great support from young people, will also greet students at the University of Victoria.

Green Party leader Elizabeth May will continue her tour through Vancouver Island with stops in Nanaimo, Duncan, Victoria, Langford, Victoria West and Saanich.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau will deliver remarks and hold a media availability at 11 a.m. ET in Whitby, ON. With candidate Ryan Turnbull. Trudeau will then campaign with candidates in Orillia and Barrie before attending a 6 p.m. ET rally with the Liberal team in Vaughan.

Conservative leader Andrew Scheer will start off the day at 11 a.m. ET in Fredericton, N.B. with an announcement and meet & greet. From there, Scheer with travel to Saint-Georges, Q.C. to campaign with the candidate in the Beauce riding. He will end the day with a rally in Drummondville.

See Senior Consultant Geoff Turner on CPAC's PrimeTime Politics


Read Consultant Hussain Shorish's latest article in IRPP's Policy Options


AND don't forget...You’re invited! Next Tuesday morning, #elxn43 results will be the hottest topic in town - so why not have a coffee with us (and other #cdnpoli nerds) while you vent/celebrate? Click on the image above for further details and to RSVP.


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